[Committee] FYI: 4th Assessment Report Schedule / Acceleration in rate of CO2 accumulation in atmosphere

[Steve Stretton]

Please find enclosed dates for the upcoming IPCC report and updated article
in "The Guardian" today.
Best,
Steve

-----Original Message-----
From: Robin Smith [mailto:robincsco at hotmail.com] 
Sent: 18 January 2007 22:39
To: robincsco at hotmail.coms; sjstretton at googlemail.com
Subject: FYI on 4th Assessment Report Schedule:


http://www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/39878/story.htm

Early next month the International Panel on Climate Change will produce the 
first of four key reports this year assessing

1) Feb - Latest scientific knowledge on global warming [2nd Feb for summary]
2) April - Adaptation
3) May - Mitigation
4) November - Final overview






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Surge in carbon levels raises fears of runaway warming

David Adam Environment correspondent
Friday January 19, 2007

Carbon dioxide is accumulating in the atmosphere much faster than scientists
expected, raising fears that humankind may have less time to tackle climate
change than previously thought.
New figures from dozens of measuring stations across the world reveal that
concentrations of CO2, the main greenhouse gas, rose at record levels during
2006 - the fourth year in the last five to show a sharp increase. Experts
are puzzled because the spike, which follows decades of more modest annual
rises, does not appear to match the pattern of steady increases in human
emissions.

At its most far reaching, the finding could indicate that global
temperatures are making forests, soils and oceans less able to absorb carbon
dioxide - a shift that would make it harder to tackle global warming. Such a
shift would worsen even the gloomy predictions of the Stern Review which
warned that we had little over a decade to tackle rising emissions to avoid
the worst effects of climate change.

David Hofmann of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(Noaa), which published the figures, said: "Over this last decade the growth
rates in carbon dioxide have been higher. I don't think we can plausibly say
what's causing it. It's something we're going to look at."

Peter Cox, a climate change expert at Exeter University, said: " The concern
is that climate change itself will affect the ability of the land to absorb
our emissions." At the moment around half of human carbon emissions are
reabsorbed by nature but the fear among scientists is that increasing
temperatures will work to reduce this effect.

Professor Cox added: "It means our emissions would have a progressively
bigger impact on climate change because more of them will remain in the air.
It accelerates the rate of change, so we get it sooner and we get it
harder."

Carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere is measured in parts per
million (ppm). From 1970 to 2000 that concentration rose by about 1.5ppm
each year, as human activities sent more of the gas into the atmosphere. But
according to the latest figures, last year saw a rise of 2.05ppm (*). And
2006 was not alone. A series of similar jumps in recent years means the
carbon dioxide level has risen by an average 2.1ppm (*) each year since
2001.

Above-average annual rises in carbon dioxide levels have been explained by
natural events such as the El Niño weather pattern, centred on the Pacific
Ocean. But the last El Niño was in 1998, when it resulted in a record annual
increase in carbon dioxide of 2.9ppm. If the current trend continues, this
year's predicted El Niño could see the annual rise in carbon dioxide pass
the 3ppm level for the first time.

Prof Cox said that an increase in forest fires, heatwaves across Europe and
the Amazon drought of 2005 could have helped to drive up carbon dioxide
levels. Such events are predicted to become more frequent with rising global
temperatures. He admitted "the jury is still out" on whether the recent
spike is evidence of a significant change, although some computer models
predict that the Earth will start to absorb less carbon dioxide some time
this decade.

"Over the past few years carbon dioxide has been going up faster than we
would expect, based on the rate that emissions are increasing," Prof Cox
said.

Figures presented to a recent UN climate conference in Nairobi showed that
carbon dioxide emissions produced by the worldwide burning of fossil fuels
increased by 3.2% from 2000 to 2005.

>From 1990 to 1999 the emissions increase was 0.8%. But other experts think
rising emissions could yet account for the anomaly. Pieter Tans of Noaa
cited contrasting figures from the US Department of Energy, which show much
sharper annual emissions increases, up to 4.5% in recent years. The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is expected to announce more
robust emissions data when it reports next month.


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(*) NOTE CHANGES FROM PRINTED VERSION

Since this story was published the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Adminstration has informed us of an error in their published data. It says
the carbon dioxide growth rate for 2006 was 2.05, not 2.64 as originally
stated. They have altered the data on their website to reflect that change.

Using the new figure, the average rise since 2001 is 2.1ppm, not 2.2ppm. 

[SJS: I have updated the story with the new figure.]
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