[Committee] Electricity Key to The Future of Electricity Supply

[S.J. Stretton]

notes from talk last night (Institute of Physics) by Lord Tombs; whose
common sense was fresh and encouraging.
S

Lord Tombs: Electricity Key to The Future of Electricity Supply
Institute of Physics, London.

Key Take-home message:
1) Energy is a strategic issue
2) Electricity is the strategic pivot
      - Energy converter
      - Supplies are essential: hospitals etc.
      - Cannot be stored effectively
      - Alternative fuel for road transport (batteries, hydrogen)

Fundamental Goals
 Pressing need to reduce dependence on imported gas (Russia)
Important need to reduce CO2 emissions

UK Electricity:
Fragmented Industry. No centre for coherent structure
UK Renewable Obligation: Subsidy for wind programme will cost £30bn by 2020.
(Answer to parliamentary answer)
 Could replace entire nuclear capacity with half of that amount of money.

UK 'free' competition is rigged:
Short term price is dominant.
50% subsidy to wind
Political hostility to nuclear? Nuclear pays carbon tax despite not emitting
carbon & has been forced to reprocess waste

Large amounts of UK electricity generation needs replacing (nearly half is
coal and 20% nuclear are ageing).
Gas and oil are great security risk. UK to become largest gas importer in
Europe.

Alternatives:

   - Renewable energy: substantial CO2 reduction, but at a huge cost.
   Also diffuse and intermittent.
   - Marine sources operate in very hostile environment: force-10 gales /
   60ft swell / salt / cables to floor - problems?
   - Tidal power environmentally worrying: e.g flooding risk on Severn if
   outflow is interupted?
   - For wind, peak supply matches peak demand only 15/365 days of the
   year on average.
   - "Clean" coal produces CO2 and Carbon Sequestration expensive and
   unproven
   - Nuclear fission power is the only route to achieving both objectives
   - good safety record
   - Nuclear fusion continues to offer promise but cannot be relied upon
   (50y/50y large energy source in 22nd century?)

Who will think strategically?
Politicians are too short term: Lord Tombs' personal experience...
Civil Service: 0/42 permanent secerataries (none) are scientists, engineers
or accountants
Offgem does not have remit or capaicty to think strategically

Conclusion
 Need an independent body with technical capacity to grant long-term tarrif
strategy
Major Uncertainty for some decades ahead: dependent on imported gas for 3
decades: not from Norway but from Russia, Qatar, and Algeria
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